Oil and water do not mix
together but stock prices and oil prices does!
Both, the oil prices and
stock prices were declining with the correlation of about 91% when oil prices
dropped down to $40 per barrel in December 2015. Leo Chen who is the
quantitative analyst at Cumberland Advisers called this correlation a “black swan”.
According to him this correlation between oil prices and stock prices is not
usual.
From past five years the
correlation between S & P Index and the oil prices was negative 71.8%. This
shows that the stock prices and oil prices move in opposite direction. If oil
prices rise, the stock prices fall and vice versa. However, from past twenty
years this correlation has not been more than 25% as compared to current 91%.
Now the question here is what
is so few and far between now and then?
As we know that these days
the oil prices have been declining from the last quarter of 2015 in the international
market. However globally this drop is not being considered as a good news. But
why? Why this decrease in oil prices is
not welcomed in the economy?
It’s quite complicated!
There are many reasons behind
this and different analysts and investors hold different view point. Some
believe that this drop in oil prices is bad news for the corporates as it would
affect their profits in the long run due to less demand of oil. This also
includes productive economies like China, where the growth productivity has
gone slower. Another school of thought relates it to prevailing trend of dollar
in the exchange rate markets.
In order to understand the
phenomena behind the swift dropping of oil prices, you may visit my article
Dropping Oil Prices: An Alarm for Saudi Arabia. To get more information on
current trend of dollar in the exchange market, visit my article
We may believe that there are
several other ingredients involved in this oil and stock curry which are adding
flavors to confuse the whole recipe. We may also say that if the investors would
take a flight from commodity markets due to prevailing uncertainty and high
risk aversion then the volatility in the stock market may also be another
reason for the stock market and the oil prices to move in same direction
against the norm.
However, the good news is
that recently the slight temporary boost in the oil prices also raised the sentiments
on Wall Street and the Dow moved up sharply. The blue chip companies got up
with 153 points.
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